Asking the experts | economist.com


The economy

Our admittedly unscientific poll offers cheer to both candidates

BARACK OBAMA and Mitt Romney have spent many months and hundreds of millions of dollars trying to convince the public that electing the other man would lead to economic catastrophe. They have fought to a draw: voters today are almost evenly split over which man would do a better job on the economy.

But whom would the experts pick? To find out, The Economist polled hundreds of professional academic and business economists. Our main finding should hearten Mr Obama. By a large margin they rate his overall economic plan more highly than Mr Romney’s, credit him with a better grasp of economics, and think him more likely to appoint a good economic team (see chart). They do not hold the perpetually disappointing recovery against him; half of respondents graded his record as good or very good, compared with just 5% who said that about George Bush in our poll four years ago. “It all depends on the counterfactual,” said Justin Wolfers, an economist at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, referring to how bad things might have been without the president’s emergency measures.

But Mr Romney can take heart from a deeper dive into the numbers. The Economistpolled two groups: research associates of the National Bureau of Economic Research, the country’s leading organisation of academic economists; and the outlook panel of the National Association for Business Economics. The academics gave Mr Obama much higher marks than Mr Romney, which may in part reflect partisan preference: fully 45% of them identified themselves as Democrats, and just 7% as Republicans.

By contrast, the forecasters, a much less partisan crowd, consistently assigned Mr Romney higher scores. Democrats and Republicans were equally represented in this group, at 22% each. Roughly half of both groups were either independent or declined to state an affiliation. Among these independents, and these are probably the most compelling numbers, Mr Obama’s platform still got a higher grade than Mr Romney’s, but by a much smaller margin than in the group as a whole. The independents, by a slim margin, thought Mr Obama would name a better economic team, but also believed that Mr Romney has the better grasp of economics.

While we cannot claim that this is a scientific sampling of economists’ opinions, our sample is reasonably large: 312 of the 902 NBER research associates responded, as did 51, around half, of the NABE forecast panel’s members. Leer más “Asking the experts | economist.com”

How To Watch The U.S. Presidential Debates Online


ReadWriteWeb | 

We’ve come a long way since 1960. That was the year of the first televised debate between two U.S. presidential candidates. Fifty-two years after Kennedy and Nixon verbally sparred onstage, this political traditional continues, but with more ways of watching than ever before.

Much has changed even in the last four years. In 2008, watching the debates without a cable subscription involved streaming them from a clunky player on CNN’s website, which could kinda-sorta be full-screened to fit onto your television, if you were so ambitious as to plug your laptop into your HDTV. Good news: This year, things are going to be much easier. (And not just for watching online, but also for interacting with other political junkies.)

On October 3, October 16, and October 22, CNN will stream presidential debates between President Barack Obama and Governor Mitt Romney live on its website, just as it did last time around.

In a new interactive twist, the network’s Web interface will allow viewers to select specific clips from the debates and share them over Facebook and Twitter.CNN’s livestreams will also be available on many of the connected gadgets we’ve all spent the last four years purchasing.

Most live feeds in CNN’s mobile apps require a cable subscription to access, but the debates will be freely available on iPads, iPhones and Android devices.

Leer más “How To Watch The U.S. Presidential Debates Online”

Las personas que confían en sus sentimientos predicen mejor el futuro

Un estudio realizado por investigadores de la Columbia Business School de Estados Unidos ha revelado que las personas que confían en sus sentimientos hacen predicciones más exactas sobre eventos futuros que las personas que no se fían de sus emociones. La razón radica en que los sentimientos constituyen una “ventana privilegiada” con la que sintetizamos toda la información o el conocimiento recopilado, de manera consciente e inconsciente, acerca del mundo que nos rodea. Gracias a esta síntesis, el futuro puede dejar de ser indescifrable, aseguran los autores de la investigación. Por Yaiza Martínez.

Fuente: PhotoXpress.
Fuente: PhotoXpress.
Las personas que confían en sus propios sentimientos hacen predicciones más exactas sobre cualquier tipo de eventos futuros que las personas que no se fían de sus emociones.

Al menos esto es lo que sugiere una investigación realizada por los científicos de la Columbia Business School, de Estados Unidos, Michel Tuan Pham y Leonard Lee, en colaboración con el profesor de administración empresarial de la Joseph M. Katz Graduate School of Business de la Universidad de Pittsburgh, Andrew Stephen.

Según publica la Columbia Business School en un comunicado, los investigadores llevaron a cabo ocho estudios en los que se pidió a los participantes que predijeran varios hechos futuros, como quién sería candidato presidencial del partido demócrata estadounidense en 2008 o el éxito de taquilla de diversas películas.


Científicos descubren un “oráculo emocional” que ayuda a sintetizar información y a adivinar
con mayor exactitud lo que va a suceder

Un estudio realizado por investigadores de la Columbia Business School de Estados Unidos ha revelado que las personas que confían en sus sentimientos hacen predicciones más exactas sobre eventos futuros que las personas que no se fían de sus emociones. La razón radica en que los sentimientos constituyen una “ventana privilegiada” con la que sintetizamos toda la información o el conocimiento recopilado, de manera consciente e inconsciente, acerca del mundo que nos rodea. Gracias a esta síntesis, el futuro puede dejar de ser indescifrable, aseguran los autores de la investigación. Por Yaiza Martínez.

Fuente: PhotoXpress.

Fuente: PhotoXpress.
Las personas que confían en sus propios sentimientos hacen predicciones más exactas sobre cualquier tipo de eventos futuros que las personas que no se fían de sus emociones.Al menos esto es lo que sugiere una investigación realizada por los científicos de la Columbia Business School, de Estados Unidos, Michel Tuan Pham y Leonard Lee, en colaboración con el profesor de administración empresarial de la Joseph M. Katz Graduate School of Business de la Universidad de Pittsburgh, Andrew Stephen.

Según publica la Columbia Business School en un comunicado, los investigadores llevaron a cabo ocho estudios en los que se pidió a los participantes que predijeran varios hechos futuros, como quién sería candidato presidencial del partido demócrata estadounidense en 2008 o el éxito de taquilla de diversas películas.

Otras predicciones solicitadas fueron determinar el ganador del American Idol, un concurso musical muy famoso en el país retransmitido por la cadena FOX; los movimientos del índice Dow Jones, el equipo ganador del campeonato de fútbol universitario e incluso el clima.

A pesar de la amplia gama de eventos y horizontes de predicción (en términos del momento en que los hechos a predecir se producirían), los resultados de los ocho estudios revelaron, de manera consistente, que las personas que confiaban más en sus sentimientos eran más propensas a predecir de manera correcta el futuro, en comparación con las personas que no confiaban en sus emociones.

Efecto oráculo emocional

Los investigadores, que han bautizado ya esta capacidad como “efecto oráculo emocional”, aplicaron dos métodos distintos para manipular o medir la confianza de los participantes en sus propios sentimientos, a la hora de hacer predicciones.

En algunos de los ocho estudios, el método empleado fue un estándar de tratamiento de la “confianza en los sentimientos” originalmente desarrollado por el propio Michel Pham a partir de los hallazgos previos de otro investigador, el psicólogo de la Universidad de Michigan, Norbert Schwars.

Schwarz es el autor de una teoría, conocida como hipótesis de “sentimientos-como-información”, que hoy día está considerada una de las más influyentes explicaciones sobre las consecuencias cognitivas de los afectos. Según este psicólogo, cuando la gente hace juicios sobre un tema, confía en sus emociones como diagnosticadoras de información sobre dicho tema, lo que da lugar a juicios a menudo acertados, y a veces erróneos. Leer más “Las personas que confían en sus sentimientos predicen mejor el futuro”

White House joins Google+ to further engage with voters

It’s on all the other social networking sites so it was only a matter of time before it joined Google+. And on Friday it did—the White House now has an account with Google+ as it seeks to engage with more voters in the run up to November’s presidential election.

With the annual State of the Union address a matter of hours away and an election looming later this year, the White House has signed up to social networking newcomer Google+ in a bid to connect with even more voters.

The move to get the White House on Google+ was announced on the White House’s offical blog in a post on Friday. “On day one, President Obama made clear that this Administration is committed to public engagement and participation,” spokesperson Kori Schulman wrote in the post.

The Google+ page will offer up news from the blog, photos and videos from behind the scenes and give voters an opportunity to participate, Schulman said.

She continued, “We hope you’ll add your voice to the discussion and share the things you find interesting with people in your circles.”


Trevor Mogg
http://www.digitaltrends.com/social-media/white-house-joins-google-to-further-engage-with-voters/
BY 

It’s on all the other social networking sites so it was only a matter of time before it joined Google+. And on Friday it did—the White House now has an account with Google+ as it seeks to engage with more voters in the run up to November’s presidential election.

With the annual State of the Union address a matter of hours away and an election looming later this year, the White House has signed up to social networking newcomer Google+ in a bid to connect with even more voters.

The move to get the White House on Google+ was announced on the White House’s offical blog in a post on Friday. “On day one, President Obama made clear that this Administration is committed to public engagement and participation,” spokesperson Kori Schulman wrote in the post.

The Google+ page will offer up news from the blog, photos and videos from behind the scenes and give voters an opportunity to participate, Schulman said.

She continued, “We hope you’ll add your voice to the discussion and share the things you find interesting with people in your circles.” Leer más “White House joins Google+ to further engage with voters”

Gerald Ford Became US President 36 Years Ago Today.

Gerald Ford became President without any votes being cast

36 years ago today in 1974, Gerald Ford became the first US President to come into office without a single vote being cast in his favour. The unprecedented transition of power under the 25th amendment officially occurred when Mr Nixon handed a letter of resignation to his Secretary of State Dr Henry Kissinger.

Speaking only minutes after taking the oath of office in the East Room of the White House, he said: “You have not elected me as your president by your ballots. So I ask you to confirm me as your president with your prayers.”

It’s hard to build your reputation and your ‘personal brand’ when people haven’t had the chance to see what you stand for.

What interests me as a marketer though is that during this time, significant research was done to establish what the average attention span of each person was, so that Gerald Ford could attempt to win over the hearts and minds of the population, using media sound-bites on tv and radio.


by jeremywaite

Gerald Ford became President without any votes being cast

36 years ago today in 1974, Gerald Ford became the first US President to come into office without a single vote being cast in his favour.  The unprecedented transition of power under the 25th amendment officially occurred when Mr Nixon handed a letter of resignation to his Secretary of State Dr Henry Kissinger.

Speaking only minutes after taking the oath of office in the East Room of the White House, he said: “You have not elected me as your president by your ballots. So I ask you to confirm me as your president with your prayers.”

It’s hard to build your reputation and your ‘personal brand’ when people haven’t had the chance to see what you stand for.

What interests me as a marketer though is that during this time, significant research was done to establish what the average attention span of each person was, so that Gerald Ford could attempt to win over the hearts and minds of the population, using media sound-bites on tv and radio. Leer más “Gerald Ford Became US President 36 Years Ago Today.”