Little Hiring Seen for Rest of Year

You’ve heard that old saw that if something quacks like a duck, walks like a duck, it’s probably a duck? Might as well apply it to the U.S. economy.

Today’s Economic Trends Index from The Conference Board declined slightly from July. It now stands at 96.7. In July it was 97.4.

Obviously, that’s not good news, though a .7 drop in an index that is up 9.4 percent in a year might be ignorable if all it did was quack. But the Index is also walking like the duck it is. For the first time since March 2009 seven of the eight components that go into the index turned negative.

The Conference Board reported the weakening indicators were: Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get”; Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now; Part-Time Workers for Economic Reasons; Job Openings; Industrial Production; and Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales. Seguir leyendo “Little Hiring Seen for Rest of Year”

Why China Won’t Surpass America As #1 Superpower Any Time This Century

Vincent Fernando, CFA | May. 5, 2010, 6:25 AM

china vs usaA month ago we looked at how population trends would allow the U.S. economy to keep expanding at a relatively rapid rate for the next few centuries… just as China‘s population trends would be hurting China’s economic growth.

Population dynamics alone argue that it will be a challenge for Chinese GDP to overtake America’s, though this challenge is likely to be met.

Yet even once Chinese GDP is larger than America’s, raw aggregate GDP is not enough to become a world super power, and Harvard Professor Joseph Nye gives an explanation why in an interesting opinion piece in Caixin. Seguir leyendo “Why China Won’t Surpass America As #1 Superpower Any Time This Century”